The Cold Smoke Report

I’m realizing that I’m facing a slight dilemma with forecast totals vs. reported totals. This goes back to the SNOTEL measurements and snowpack settling I discussed in my initial posts. The snowfall trackers on the right-hand side use 24h SNOTEL settled depth at 1 location for each, so they almost always are lower than what is reported at the resorts. However, I can’t track resort accumulations, at least for Big Sky, where that data is not publicly available. So when I make a forecast (e.g. 2-4 inches+), is that verified against the SNOTEL or resort wide?

For this storm we saw about 2–3” at most of the SNOTEL locations; however, the interval boards at Bridger reported 5 inches and Big Sky reported 6”, though it’s unclear where Big Sky is getting that 6 inches from (I assume they have an upper mountain snow stake, i.e., not on their webcams). If anybody knows feel free to comment :)

Outlook:

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re heading into a pattern with a ridge building over us that will lead to a dry spell for at least the next ~ week.  The ECMWF ensemble is dry through about Nov 12 with only a median 0.07" of water at Bridger over ten days. The GFS ensemble is similarly dry with only a hint of a pattern change beyond 7–10 days.

The early jump is the end of Sunday–Monday's storm.

Sadly, this is going to have me worried about faceting with the shallow snowpack near the ground. Clear, cold, long November nights mean we’ll get a strong temperature gradient between the ground and snowpack surface. This will be most prominent on shaded upper elevation north and east aspects, but we’ll just have to keep an eye on it and see how things shake out. I’m sure the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center (GNFAC) will be all over this, so make sure to keep an eye on any updates they put out especially once snow starts flying again.

-Trey